Total BTC inflow on the exchange has been net negative since July ’21

Bitcoin inflows across all exchanges have been net negative since July last year, but four major exchanges have contradicted this trend with nearly equal numbers of net positive inflows.

There has been a total net outflow of 46,000 BTC (worth about $1.8 billion at current prices) from all crypto exchanges since July.

Only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex and FTX have seen net positive inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC), according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s March 7. newsletter† During the same period, the net outflow was 253,000 BTC from all other exchanges monitored.

FTX, Binance, Bittrex and Bitfinex have seen net positive inflows of BTC since July 2021 – Glassnode

FTX and Huobi have seen the most dramatic shift in their BTC positions since July. While FTX has more than tripled the amount of BTC it holds to 103,200 today, Huobi’s holdings have dwindled to just 12,300 BTC, or about 6% of what it owns, from over 200,000.

Most exchanges have seen net negative inflows of BTC since July 2021 – Glassnode

Net outflows have been consistent since last year, with some major spikes in August and most recently on January 11.

However, Glassnode attributes the current relatively low inflows to “the magnitude of market uncertainty at the moment”, suggesting that the crypto trading market in general has shifted towards derivatives trading rather than spot selling to hedge risk.

Stock market inflows are measured to provide a better understanding of whether investors are preparing to liquidate or hold their coins. The inward selling pressure of net inflows, while net outflows point to more hodling.

The coins that remain in the chain maintain a realized price of $24,100 per BTC, suggesting that most hodlers have a profit margin of 63%. Realized price is the average price of all coins when they were moved in the chain.

The realized price contrasts with an implied price of $39,200. The implied price is an estimated fair value price per coin and is currently just below breakeven as BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing according to CoinGekko

Right now, short-term holders are about 15% underwater as the average price of coins that have moved up the chain in the past 155 days is $46,400, according to Glassnode.

Related: Bitcoin Price Rejection At $39K And Rising Regulatory Concerns Are Fueling The Market Again

In addition to the low volume of inflows and outflows, the profit-and-loss ratio (PnL) of sellers has been arguably flattening since early 2021. Glassnode suggests that long-term holders (LTH) are getting tired of selling, although “we have yet to see a major LTH capitulation event, as has been seen with past cyclical bottoms.” It added:

“The historically low magnitude of both STH and LTH losses may indicate increasing chances of total seller exhaustion.”

The newsletter warns that there is still the risk of a “final and complete capitulation of both STH and LTH” that has taken place at the bottom of previous cycle bottoms.

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