Plan B’s $100k Bitcoin is down by about…

If Sherlock Holmes has ever decided to solve a mystery within the crypto community, his first may well be the curious case of PlanB and the $100k Christmas of 2021 that never came. With the first quarter of 2022 slowly coming to a close, let’s take a look at the pseudonymous creator’s Bitcoin stock-to-flow model to see if it still works.

Planning started?

The bottom line is that if you still believe in the S2F model, the $100,000 Bitcoin deadline has shifted. † .with about two years. PlanB’s S2F analysis found that Bitcoin’s price is still in the lowest band of the S2F model. This is a worrying sign for many investors who want a straight flight to the finish line.

However, models are rarely this simple and it is clear that there is a lot of wiggle room for BTC, which involves S2F.

So what is the reason for this delay? For its part, PlanB attributed to to the war, the expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the Chinese mining ban.

Say B for Bear

At the time of going to press, Bitcoin had already crossed the $40,000 mark and was trading at $40,826.17 after an increase of 1.16% in the last 24 hours and a rise of 3.97% in the last seven days. In addition, the market has been in a state of extreme fear for several consecutive days.

After hitting ATHs above $65,000, the king coin is now struggling to stay above $40,000, let alone break the $45,000 resistance. Of course, with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, more people are turning to gold instead, investors are getting scared.

What’s more, a report from Arcane Research placed Bitcoin next to the VIX index measuring volatility expectations – or, simply put, fear. The takeaway here is that when the VIX index peaked, Bitcoin was also sold and consequently the price fell.

Source: mysterious investigation

The report noted

“The high level of fear in traditional markets is probably one of the main drivers of bitcoin’s poor performance so far this year.”

Plans for the future

PlanB’s Bitcoin S2F model that predicts a 100k Bitcoin in two years may put off many who do not have the patience for such a long-term investment plan. However, there could be more on the map. The mystery analyst studied Bitcoin’s candle formations and used past examples to signal that a rally could be imminent soon.

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