If regular players enter the game, will Bitcoin’s halving cycle change?

Bitcoin price action has been very choppy lately and it’s time to consider whether traders can rely more on the tried and true template. To be specific – the Bitcoin halving cycle.

Quant me in

Bitcoin’s halving cycles are critical for investors to predict the long-term movements of the king’s currency. However, more and more analysts are getting the sense that the cycle is evolving — or changing completely.

Crypto Quant analyst Big Papi wrote that they felt that traders gained technical experience and that both TRADFI actors and whales were less dependent on their emotions when making investment decisions. the analyst noted

“I think the traditional halving cycles are weakening. The growing support for 2021 is a reflection of the growing confidence, acceptance and maturity of the cycle.

They continued with to add

“Reduced volatility has been a theme of this cycle. Drawdowns and rises are generally weaker.”

It’s not you, it’s me

The most important thing to note, however, is Bitcoin’s maturity as crypto adoption is on the rise worldwide and bigger, more institutional players have skin in the game. This could be a factor that changes Bitcoin’s cycles.

Source: CryptoQuant

Another element to keep in mind is Bitcoin’s rising correlation with the S&P500, Nasdaq and technology stocks. This has led to concerns that Bitcoin may not be enough to diversify an investor’s portfolio or hedge against inflation if it begins to move along with more traditional assets.

That said, Bitcoin and gold are still oceans away, according to PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model. The anonymous analyst looked at Bitcoin’s falling price on Feb. 24 and compared it to gold’s upward action. He used this to theorize that investors could view Bitcoin as akin to a technical stock, rather than a digital product.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin on-chain analyst Willy Woo has also commented on Bitcoin’s changing cycle. After the December 2021 crash, Woo said

“… we’re not getting an exponential, parabolic kind of runaway tops and a burst. We’re getting rounded tops and that’s a sign that institutions are coming here and going short here. Some of them don’t really take positions, like taking out returns That’s a different ball game.”

However, Woo still predicted a new record for Bitcoin in 2022.

Do you feel this?

Santiment data revealed how Bitcoin investors are feeling right now. Weighted sentiment recently fell to -1,331, despite Bitcoin’s rally in recent days, suggesting traders are not too convinced that the support level will rise further now.

Source: Sanbase

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