Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the only opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
Bitcoin always has a huge impact on the long-term trend of most altcoins. In Cardano’s case, Bitcoin’s downward trend from its highs near $69k has had a brutal effect on Cardano’s own trend. ADA has lost nearly 75% since its ATH, compared to the 40% figure for BTC. The $1 psychological and technical support level was lost to selling pressure last month – can the bulls regain this level?
The trend continued to be bearish as the USD 2.2 level broke in September last year during a move south. Since then, the price has crashed through multiple support levels with $1.2 and $1 being some of the key long-term significance levels.
At the time of writing, the charts didn’t look encouraging to long-term buyers. The price was trading below the USD 0.85 area at the time of printing. The $1.1 area had seen a bullish order block in July. In recent months, this area saw some demand coming, but since then, buyers have been exhausted.
It was imperative that prices move past the $1 level to turn the longer-term bias towards bullish.
The price on the daily chart was trading below the simple moving averages of 21 and 55 periods (orange and green). This showed a strong downtrend, which the series of lower highs can also testify. In recent days, the price made a series of lower lows while the RSI made higher lows – a bullish divergence.
This could make a small jump towards $0.93-$0.98, providing some liquidity at the upside that helped pull the price. However, such a bounce would just be another opportunity to sell ADA.
The OBV is steadily declining, a sign of stable sales volume and a real lack of demand in recent months to overwhelm sellers.
The price action and indicators pointed to a further downside for ADA, although a small jump towards $0.93 could be observed in the coming days. Unless ADA can rise past $1 and test $1.2, risk-averse investors may choose to wait for a buying opportunity to present itself.