Bitcoin (BTC) has made up for much of the losses that occurred in January and now the focus of traders is shifting to April, which has been a strong month historically. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has closed April in the red just three times, and its worst monthly loss was a 3.46% drop in 2015.
While history favors the bulls, the Whale Shadows indicator has noted that more than 11,000 Bitcoin has left a wallet where it had been dormant for seven to 10 years. The move of similar amounts of dormant accounts has generally resulted in a major top, according to independent ma analyst Phillip Swift.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
In addition to keeping an eye on the crypto markets, traders should also monitor the performance of the US stock markets for clues, as Bitcoin has been closely correlated with the stock markets in recent weeks.
Can bulls clear the overhead hurdle in Bitcoin and select altcoins and extend the strong recovery from the lows? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin bounced off the 200-day simple moving average ($48,291) on March 29 and plunged toward the 20-day exponential moving average ($43,935) today. The long tail on today’s candlestick suggests buyers are piling up on dips.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will make another attempt to push the price above the 200-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could rise as high as $52,000 where the bears could build another strong resistance.
Alternatively, if the price falls again against the 200-day SMA, it suggests that bears have erected a strong barrier at this level. The pair could then consolidate for a few days between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day SMA.
A break and close below the 20-day EMA suggests that bullish momentum has weakened. That could result in a drop towards the 50-day SMA ($41,461).
Ether (ETH) rejected the 200-day SMA ($3,488) on March 29, but the shallow correction and sharp recovery indicate strong demand at lower levels.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising 20-day EMA ($3,098) and relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate that bulls are in control.
If buyers push the price above the 200-day SMA, bullish momentum could increase further and the ETH/USDT pair could rise towards the psychological level of USD 4,000.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls again against the overhead resistance, it will suggest that bears do not want to give in. The bears will then try to get the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could fall towards the 50-day SMA ($2,860).
Binance Coin (BNB) broke above the overhead resistance at $445 on March 30-31, but the bulls were unable to sustain the higher levels.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears pushed the price towards the 20-day EMA ($413) today, but the strong rally in the level suggests strong buying by the bulls at lower levels.
If bulls push and hold the price above USD 445, the BNB/USDT pair could rise towards the 200-day SMA ($467) and then jump to the psychological level of USD 500.
This positive picture will be negated in the short term if the price falls from current levels and dips below the moving averages. The pair could then stay between $350 and $445 for a few more days.
Solana (SOL) had witnessed a tough battle between the bulls and bears around the critical $122 level. The long wick on the March 31 candlestick indicated selling at higher levels, but the bears were unable to lower the price today keep the $122.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This suggests that the bulls bought aggressively on the small dip. The buyers have pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $122, signaling the start of a potential new uptrend.
The SOL/USDT pair could now challenge the 200-day SMA ($150). If bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be $163.
Conversely, if the price fails to stay above $122, it will suggest that demand is drying up at higher levels. The pair could then fall towards the 20-day EMA ($103).
Ripple (XRP) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on March 30, which resolved in favor of the bears on March 31 with a sharp downward move. This suggests that the buyers who may have bought at lower levels have aggressively closed their positions.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.82) is leveling off and the RSI has fallen close to the midpoint, suggesting that bullish momentum may be weakening. If the price moves below the 50-day SMA ($0.78), the XRP/USDT pair could slide towards the next support at $0.70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price moves up from current levels, buyers will try to push the pair above $0.86 and once again challenge the resistance at $0.91. A break and close above this level could open the gates to a possible rally towards the $1 psychological level.
Cardano (ADA) rejected resistance from above at $1.26 suggesting the bears are defending the level with strength. The price could now fall as low as the 20-day EMA ($1.05), which is an important level to watch.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, buyers will make another attempt to push the ADA/USDT pair above $1.26. If they manage to do that, the pair will complete a head-and-shoulder reverse pattern. This lineup suggests that the pair may have bottomed out.
The pair could then rise into the above-ground resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($1.50) and $1.63, where the bears may build strong resistance. This bullish view will be negated in the near term if the price breaks and remains below the 50-day SMA ($0.95).
Terra’s LUNA token was rejected after hitting a new all-time high on March 30, indicating that the bears are trying to halt the uptrend. However, one small positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to go below USD 96. This suggests that the bulls are trying to turn this level into support.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising 20-day EMA ($95) suggests upside for buyers, but the negative divergence on the RSI indicates that bullish momentum could be weakening. If buyers push the price above $111, the uptrend may resume. The LUNA/USDT pair could then rise to $125.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls from the current level or overhead resistance and moves below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the traders are aggressively making gains. The pair could then fall towards the 50-day SMA ($80).
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Avalanche (AVAX) broke above the overhead resistance at $98 on March 30-31, but failed to handle the higher levels. This may have led to the posting of profits by the short term traders.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
While the bears pulled the price towards the 20-day EMA ($87), the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are trying to drive and hold the price above the overhead zone between $98 and $100.
If they manage to do that, the AVAX/USDT pair could gain momentum and climb towards $120. Conversely, if the price falls again against the overhead resistance, it will suggest a strong sell at higher levels. That could pull the price toward the moving averages.
Failure to break through the USD 23 resistance may have led to profit postings by short-term Polkadot (DOT) traders. That pushed the price towards the 20-day EMA ($20) today.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The strong recovery from the 20-day EMA suggests buying on dips. The bulls will now make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $23. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend and the price could climb towards the 200-day SMA ($29).
Alternatively, if the price falls and moves below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that bullish momentum may have weakened. That could push the price down to $19 and if this level succumbs, the next stop could be $16.
Dogecoin (DOGE) declined from $0.15 on March 28 and slipped towards the moving averages. This is an important prop for buyers to defend if they want bullish sentiment to remain intact.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price rebounds vigorously from the current level, the bulls will try to push the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.15. If they succeed, the pair could climb towards the USD 0.17 overhead resistance. The marginally rising 20-day EMA ($0.13) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a small advantage for buyers.
This positive picture will be negated in the short term if the bears sink and keep the price below the moving averages. Such a move could open the doors for a possible decline towards the critical support zone of $0.12 to $0.10.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Coin-Crypto. Every investment and trading move involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by: HitBTC stock exchange.