After dropping below $45,000 on March 31, Bitcoin (BTC) surprised investors with a faster-than-expected recovery to the $46,500 level.
Data from Coin-Crypto Markets Pro and Trading Display shows that bears managed to push BTC down to a low of $44,210, before bulls took effect to push the price back above $46,500 by midday.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Here’s what several analysts are saying about the near-term outlook for Bitcoin going forward and what developments could present headwinds for the major cryptocurrency as a new month kicks off.
The macro environment continues to affect BTC price
Events in the global financial market continue to have a major impact on the cryptocurrency markets and are likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
According to to Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez: “Currently, Macro dominates Bitcoin,” as evidenced by the “last few days of equity weakness” that “has also led to Bitcoin declines.”
Hafeez also pointed to higher interest rates in the United States, a more aggressive Fed and weakness in Chinese markets as reasons for the current volatility in stock markets.
While these macro events continue to weigh on financial markets, Macro Hive noted that there are signs of hope in Bitcoin-specific statistics.
“Bitcoin-specific dynamics are bullish with exchange-traded fund (ETF) re-inflows, open interest rates rising and HODLers accumulating.”
Traders Waiting to Break Above $48,000
According to David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, the decline in BTC price in the past 24 hours was somewhat to be expected. Lifchitz pointed to Bitcoin’s “seven-day win streak” and trend-of-quarter activity from institutional investors as contributing to the decline.
Despite the March 31 pullback, Lifchitz indicated that “the upward support trendline from March 21 remains intact,” and is likely to hold out as a support, barring a “revision of the low $40,000 in the coming days.”
“Wildcards” identified by Lifchitz that could influence this outlook include “the situation in Ukraine, the EU finance commission taking revenge on crypto and the liquidation of Mount Gox that could come any day.”
“A break above $48,000, then $51,000 is what the bulls are looking for, so we’ll see if they get served next week (new quarter = potential for new institutional influx.”
Related: Only 2 Million Bitcoin Left: Bitcoin Hits 19 Million Milestone
BTC is at the end of a major correction period
One last bit of reassurance was offered by market analyst Will Clemente, who: Posted the following chart shows BTC’s “pretty clean response to this pullback so far.”
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Twitter
The significance of the April 1 bounce was succinctly summarized by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user PlanC.
The 128-day SMA is currently at $43,972. #Bitcoin
We broke it and then at this pullback #BTC bounced hard at $44,200.
In all previous cycles (5/5 times), a break in the 128-day SMA indicated that the main correction/accumulation periods were over. #crypto
— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) Apr 1, 2022
The total cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.137 trillion and Bitcoin dominance is at 41.1%.
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