Bitcoin (BTC) Looks Ready To Test The $43,000 Level In March, According To A Tech Lineup shared by Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous market analyst.
BTC Recovers From Solid Support For 2022
Bitcoin’s drop to $37,000 yesterday was met with modest buying sentiment, leading to a price recovery of more than $39,000 on March 8. Interestingly, the upward retracement movement originated around the same uptrendline that served as an accumulation zone for traders in 2022.
Update after 2 months:
Too many retail investors on derivatives exchanges could be a bearish signal.
The good news is we have some whales accumulating $BTC in this price range of 35k-45k lately.
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) March 8, 2022
Rekt Capital saw the successful retest of the trendline in its latest outlook and noted that the move could see Bitcoin climb above $43,100 next, provided it breaks above the green-dotted diagonal resistance, as shown in the chart below.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Rekt Capital, TradingView
“Successful retest here and BTC could repeat last week’s move,” Rekt Capital said on Tuesday.
Bitcoin to $30K?
The interim bullish outlook appeared as Bitcoin remained stuck in a broad trading range – between $34,000 and $45,000 in Q1/2022. In doing so, BTC withstood extreme sell-off pressures exacerbated by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, including fears of rate hikes and the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
— 32-34k key support, 43-47k key resistance
— Headline algo trading + correlation chop in between
— Medium term bull. momentum case validated if 43-47k finally breaks (tested multiple times)
— Sideways = waiting for extremes/limits to act, not yet pic.twitter.com/RsytMYajWf
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) March 8, 2022
Filbfilb, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, also noted last weekend that “Bitcoin is range-bound at the macro level,” but its long-term structure suggests it could break upwards.
“In the short term, if the 50 DMA and 3-day level can be supported, a retest of the $43k and high timeframe level could occur,” Flibflib said, adding that a further breach above Bitcoin’s annual pivot level of $48,000 would be “very significant and implied of a fundamental change”.
BTC/USD four hour price chart. Source: Decentrader, TradingView
But Rekt Capital’s upside setup revealed few opportunities for Bitcoin to extend its rebound to $48,000. That’s because the setup resembles a bearish “ascending triangle” pattern, a consolidation range that typically sends the price further down after the breakout move.
Specifically, the profit target of a rising triangle is calculated by measuring the maximum distance between the two trendlines of the pattern and subtracting that from the breakout level.
In the chart below, the breakout point is believed to be somewhere between $37,500 and $45,000, meaning a successful break below the triangle range could see Bitcoin drop to between $30,000 and $35,000.
BTC/USD daily price chart with ascending triangle breakout targets. Source: TradingView
Interestingly, both $30,000 and $35,000 had functioned as solid support levels in recent history.
BTC bottoming out?
Flibflib also highlighted that the $30,000 level coincided with the bottom of Bitcoin’s logarithmic regression bands – a “tried and tested” support level.
Related: Bitcoin Heading to 36K, Analysis Says Amid Warning Global Stocks ‘Seem Expensive’
“The good news is that Bitcoin has less to fall because it hasn’t risen as much,” the analyst claimed, adding:
“The confluence with this which is now at the bottom of the weekly range is significant in our view and supports the idea that we will not see a decline as much as in previous cycles.”
BTC/USD 3D chart with annual pivots and log growth curve. Source: TradingView, DecenTrader
Nevertheless, an aggressive capitulation event near the $30,000 level could cause Bitcoin to refresh its downward target towards the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA), a “catch-all level” that it marks the end of previous bearish cycles in March 2020 and December 2018.
The 200-week SMA is around $20,000.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Coin-Crypto.com. Every investment and trading move involves risks, you should do your own research when making a decision.